Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 39.5 | 88% |
| O/U 35.5 | 86% |
| O/U 37.5 | 80% |
| O/U 43.5 | 76% |
| O/U 45.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| O/U 41.5 | 70% |
| Spread -0.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| O/U 47.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| Utah O/U 23.5 | 66% |
| O/U 51.5 | 65% |
| O/U 49.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Houston O/U 20.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| O/U 53.5 | 57% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 55.5 | 54% |
| Houston O/U 23.5 | 54% |
| Utah 2H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 53% |
| Utah 1H O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 52% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Utah 1H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Houston O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Houston O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Houston O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Utah O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Houston 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Houston 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Utah 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Houston 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Houston 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Utah 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Houston Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Houston vs. Utah: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Houston vs. Utah: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Houston O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| O/U 57.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Utah O/U 29.5 | 48% |
| Utah O/U 32.5 | 48% |
| Houston 2H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Utah 2H O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 59.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 45% |
| Houston 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Utah 2H O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 43% |
| Houston vs. Utah: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 61.5 | 40% |
| Utah O/U 35.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Houston vs. Utah: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -10.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| O/U 63.5 | 35% |
| Utah O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| O/U 65.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| 1H Moneyline | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Houston vs. Utah | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Houston vs. Utah: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 32% |
| Spread -0.5 | 31% |
| O/U 67.5 | 31% |
| Houston vs. Utah: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| Spread -14.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| O/U 71.5 | 27% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 27% |
| Houston O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Spread -20.5 | 25% |
| Spread -17.5 | 25% |
| Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| O/U 69.5 | 21% |
| O/U 73.5 | 21% |
| Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 75.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 88% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Houston vs. Utah. In the upcoming college football game between Houston and Utah, scheduled for October 24 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston" if Houston win the game. This market will resolve to "Utah"…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $92K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: Houston vs. Utah über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Politik Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Was ist die liquideste politische Plattform?
- Polymarket — mit Abstand. Das US-Präsidentschafts-Volumen 2024 lag bei ~$3,5 Mrd vs Kalshi (~$200 M) und Betfair (~$120 M). Da Polymarket in vielen Jurisdiktionen geo-blockiert ist, nutzen Trader Broker wie Politik Wetten um auf dasselbe Orderbuch zuzugreifen — ohne zusätzliche Gebühren.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Houston vs. Utah" auf Politik Wetten handeln
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