Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 92% |
| Spread -1.5 | 92% |
| Spread -2.5 | 92% |
| Spread -3.5 | 87% |
| O/U 35.5 | 87% |
| O/U 37.5 | 87% |
| Spread -4.5 | 86% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 23.5 | 86% |
| Spread -5.5 | 84% |
| Spread -6.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 82% |
| O/U 39.5 | 79% |
| Spread -7.5 | 78% |
| Spread -8.5 | 77% |
| Spread -9.5 | 77% |
| O/U 41.5 | 75% |
| Spread -10.5 | 73% |
| Spread -11.5 | 72% |
| Spread -12.5 | 71% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 71% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| Spread -13.5 | 69% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 67% |
| Spread -14.5 | 65% |
| Spread -16.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| O/U 45.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| Spread -15.5 | 61% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 47.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 59% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 59% |
| Spread -17.5 | 57% |
| Spread -18.5 | 55% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 49.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Spread -19.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 35.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 49% |
| O/U 51.5 | 48% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 48% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| Spread -22.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Spread -23.5 | 43% |
| O/U 53.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Spread -24.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 37% |
| O/U 55.5 | 36% |
| Spread -25.5 | 36% |
| Spread -26.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| O/U 57.5 | 32% |
| Spread -27.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Spread -28.5 | 28% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Spread -30.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| O/U 61.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| O/U 63.5 | 20% |
| Spread -33.5 | 20% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 23.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 13% |
| 1H Moneyline | 13% |
| O/U 67.5 | 12% |
| Spread -34.5 | 12% |
| Spread -36.5 | 12% |
| O/U 69.5 | 11% |
| Spread -37.5 | 11% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL) | 9% |
| O/U 71.5 | 9% |
| O/U 73.5 | 9% |
| Spread -40.5 | 9% |
| Spread -3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -2.5 | 8% |
| Spread -1.5 | 8% |
| Spread -0.5 | 8% |
| O/U 75.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 92% Chance für prognose: pittsburgh vs. miami (fl). Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between Pittsburgh and Miami (FL), scheduled for October 24 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh" if Pittsburgh win the game…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $141K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL) über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Politik Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Politische Märkte werden meist nach offizieller Kandidaten- oder Behörden-Bestätigung aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, Two-Hour-Window öffnet, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC.
Kalshi settelt USD via CFTC-Clearinghouse, mit klar definierten Resolution Sources (z.B. AP Race Calls für Wahlen). Betfair settelt nach offiziellem Ergebnis-Eintrag der Liga/Behörde. Manifold ist Spielgeld.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Sind politische Vorhersagemärkte in DE legal?
- Sie befinden sich in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert; einige Broker-Frontends haben einen anderen Geo-Footprint. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können — und nur, wenn Sie die rechtliche Lage in Ihrer Jurisdiktion verstehen.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL)" auf Politik Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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