Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 91% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| O/U 36.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| O/U 40.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| Toledo O/U 20.5 | 72% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 72% |
| O/U 44.5 | 66% |
| San Diego State O/U 20.5 | 63% |
| Toledo O/U 23.5 | 62% |
| O/U 46.5 | 60% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| O/U 50.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| O/U 52.5 | 44% |
| 1H Moneyline | 44% |
| Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| O/U 56.5 | 36% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| O/U 58.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -9.5 | 29% |
| Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| O/U 60.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Spread -11.5 | 23% |
| Spread -12.5 | 22% |
| O/U 62.5 | 21% |
| Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| O/U 64.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| Spread -12.5 | 15% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| O/U 66.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| O/U 68.5 | 13% |
| O/U 70.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -18.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| Spread -24.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 93% Chance für prognose: san diego state vs. toledo. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between San Diego State and Toledo, scheduled for September 26 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego State…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $200K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: San Diego State vs. Toledo über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Politik Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Sind politische Vorhersagemärkte in DE legal?
- Sie befinden sich in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert; einige Broker-Frontends haben einen anderen Geo-Footprint. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können — und nur, wenn Sie die rechtliche Lage in Ihrer Jurisdiktion verstehen.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
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