Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
87% | 13% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
87% | 13% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 87% |
| O/U 37.5 | 81% |
| O/U 39.5 | 77% |
| O/U 41.5 | 74% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 62% |
| O/U 45.5 | 61% |
| O/U 47.5 | 57% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| South Carolina O/U 23.5 | 54% |
| Tennessee 1H O/U 11.5 | 54% |
| South Carolina 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Tennessee O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Tennessee 2H O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Tennessee O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Tennessee vs. South Carolina: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee vs. South Carolina: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee vs. South Carolina: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Tennessee 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Tennessee O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 48% |
| Tennessee 2H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Tennessee 1H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 47% |
| South Carolina O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 47% |
| Tennessee vs. South Carolina | 46% |
| O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| Tennessee O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| South Carolina O/U 32.5 | 46% |
| South Carolina O/U 35.5 | 46% |
| Tennessee vs. South Carolina: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| South Carolina O/U 26.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 45% |
| Tennessee vs. South Carolina: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| Tennessee vs. South Carolina: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| South Carolina O/U 29.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| O/U 53.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| South Carolina 1H O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| O/U 55.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 36% |
| South Carolina 1H O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| O/U 57.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| O/U 59.5 | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| O/U 61.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| O/U 63.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| O/U 65.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| O/U 67.5 | 15% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| O/U 71.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| O/U 75.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| O/U 73.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Tennessee vs. South Carolina — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 87%. In the upcoming college football game between Tennessee and South Carolina, scheduled for October 24 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tennessee" if Tennessee win the game. This market will r…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $72K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: Tennessee vs. South Carolina über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Politik Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Was ist die liquideste politische Plattform?
- Polymarket — mit Abstand. Das US-Präsidentschafts-Volumen 2024 lag bei ~$3,5 Mrd vs Kalshi (~$200 M) und Betfair (~$120 M). Da Polymarket in vielen Jurisdiktionen geo-blockiert ist, nutzen Trader Broker wie Politik Wetten um auf dasselbe Orderbuch zuzugreifen — ohne zusätzliche Gebühren.
- Sind politische Vorhersagemärkte in DE legal?
- Sie befinden sich in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert; einige Broker-Frontends haben einen anderen Geo-Footprint. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können — und nur, wenn Sie die rechtliche Lage in Ihrer Jurisdiktion verstehen.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Tennessee vs. South Carolina" auf Politik Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →