Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| Boise State vs. Western Michigan | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 89% |
| Spread -1.5 | 83% |
| O/U 36.5 | 80% |
| Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| O/U 28.5 | 79% |
| Spread -3.5 | 78% |
| O/U 32.5 | 77% |
| Spread -4.5 | 76% |
| O/U 34.5 | 76% |
| Spread -5.5 | 74% |
| O/U 38.5 | 74% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| Spread -6.5 | 71% |
| Spread -7.5 | 70% |
| Spread -9.5 | 68% |
| Boise State O/U 27.5 | 68% |
| Spread -10.5 | 64% |
| O/U 42.5 | 64% |
| Spread -11.5 | 61% |
| Spread -12.5 | 60% |
| Spread -13.5 | 57% |
| Spread -8.5 | 55% |
| Spread -16.5 | 54% |
| O/U 44.5 | 54% |
| Spread -14.5 | 53% |
| Boise State O/U 30.5 | 53% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Boise State O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Boise State O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Boise State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Western Michigan O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Boise State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Western Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Western Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Western Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Western Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Western Michigan: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Western Michigan: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Western Michigan: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 48% |
| Western Michigan O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| O/U 52.5 | 47% |
| O/U 48.5 | 44% |
| Spread -15.5 | 43% |
| O/U 50.5 | 40% |
| Spread -18.5 | 39% |
| Western Michigan O/U 20.5 | 39% |
| O/U 56.5 | 37% |
| O/U 58.5 | 37% |
| Spread -21.5 | 35% |
| Spread -22.5 | 34% |
| Spread -25.5 | 33% |
| O/U 62.5 | 33% |
| O/U 64.5 | 31% |
| O/U 68.5 | 28% |
| O/U 54.5 | 26% |
| Spread -24.5 | 24% |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| O/U 66.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| Spread -6.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Boise State vs. Western Michigan. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 84% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T19:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $372K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: Boise State vs. Western Michigan plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Politische Märkte werden meist nach offizieller Kandidaten- oder Behörden-Bestätigung aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, Two-Hour-Window öffnet, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC.
Kalshi settelt USD via CFTC-Clearinghouse, mit klar definierten Resolution Sources (z.B. AP Race Calls für Wahlen). Betfair settelt nach offiziellem Ergebnis-Eintrag der Liga/Behörde. Manifold ist Spielgeld.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Was ist die liquideste politische Plattform?
- Polymarket — mit Abstand. Das US-Präsidentschafts-Volumen 2024 lag bei ~$3,5 Mrd vs Kalshi (~$200 M) und Betfair (~$120 M). Da Polymarket in vielen Jurisdiktionen geo-blockiert ist, nutzen Trader Broker wie Politik Wetten um auf dasselbe Orderbuch zuzugreifen — ohne zusätzliche Gebühren.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Sind politische Vorhersagemärkte in DE legal?
- Sie befinden sich in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert; einige Broker-Frontends haben einen anderen Geo-Footprint. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können — und nur, wenn Sie die rechtliche Lage in Ihrer Jurisdiktion verstehen.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Boise State vs. Western Michigan" auf Politik Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →