Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| O/U 32.5 | 90% |
| O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| O/U 34.5 | 86% |
| O/U 38.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| O/U 40.5 | 76% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| O/U 44.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 63% |
| O/U 46.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| California O/U 24.5 | 55% |
| Clemson vs. California | 53% |
| Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| O/U 50.5 | 53% |
| Clemson O/U 24.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| California O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Clemson O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Clemson O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Clemson O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Clemson O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| California Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| California Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| California Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| California Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| California Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| California Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| California Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| California Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| California Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| California Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| California Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| California Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| California 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| California 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| California Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| California Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| California Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| California Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| California Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| California Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| California Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| California Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| California Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 52.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Clemson O/U 27.5 | 41% |
| O/U 54.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| California O/U 27.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| O/U 56.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Clemson O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| California O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| O/U 58.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| O/U 60.5 | 24% |
| Spread -11.5 | 23% |
| Spread -12.5 | 22% |
| Spread -12.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| O/U 64.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| O/U 62.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| Spread -15.5 | 13% |
| O/U 66.5 | 12% |
| O/U 68.5 | 11% |
| Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| O/U 70.5 | 9% |
| Spread -22.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Clemson vs. California. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 53% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T02:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $84K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: Clemson vs. California über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Politik Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Politische Märkte werden meist nach offizieller Kandidaten- oder Behörden-Bestätigung aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, Two-Hour-Window öffnet, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC.
Kalshi settelt USD via CFTC-Clearinghouse, mit klar definierten Resolution Sources (z.B. AP Race Calls für Wahlen). Betfair settelt nach offiziellem Ergebnis-Eintrag der Liga/Behörde. Manifold ist Spielgeld.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Sind politische Vorhersagemärkte in DE legal?
- Sie befinden sich in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert; einige Broker-Frontends haben einen anderen Geo-Footprint. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können — und nur, wenn Sie die rechtliche Lage in Ihrer Jurisdiktion verstehen.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Clemson vs. California" auf Politik Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →