Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame vs. Purdue | 100% |
| Spread -14.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 96% |
| Spread -21.5 | 95% |
| Spread -17.5 | 95% |
| Spread -24.5 | 93% |
| Spread -27.5 | 88% |
| Spread -20.5 | 87% |
| Spread -33.5 | 84% |
| Spread -23.5 | 84% |
| Spread -30.5 | 83% |
| Spread -35.5 | 81% |
| O/U 45.5 | 81% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 80% |
| Spread -38.5 | 72% |
| O/U 37.5 | 72% |
| O/U 41.5 | 71% |
| O/U 43.5 | 70% |
| O/U 47.5 | 68% |
| Spread -34.5 | 66% |
| O/U 49.5 | 66% |
| Spread -41.5 | 65% |
| O/U 51.5 | 64% |
| Spread -32.5 | 63% |
| O/U 53.5 | 63% |
| Spread -36.5 | 60% |
| Notre Dame O/U 48.5 | 55% |
| Spread -26.5 | 51% |
| Spread -19.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -29.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| O/U 77.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| Purdue O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Purdue O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Purdue O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Purdue O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Purdue 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Purdue 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Purdue 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Purdue O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Purdue: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Purdue: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Purdue: Total Touchdowns O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Purdue 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Purdue 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Purdue: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Purdue: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Purdue: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -45.5 | 49% |
| O/U 55.5 | 49% |
| Spread -42.5 | 48% |
| Spread -44.5 | 41% |
| O/U 61.5 | 40% |
| O/U 57.5 | 36% |
| O/U 65.5 | 36% |
| O/U 67.5 | 36% |
| O/U 71.5 | 35% |
| O/U 73.5 | 35% |
| Spread -48.5 | 29% |
| Purdue O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| O/U 59.5 | 24% |
| O/U 63.5 | 20% |
| O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| O/U 75.5 | 7% |
| 1H O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Purdue 1H O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Purdue 1H O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Purdue 1H O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Notre Dame vs. Purdue. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 100% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T18:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $147K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: Notre Dame vs. Purdue plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
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