Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 90% |
| O/U 211.5 | 88% |
| O/U 213.5 | 85% |
| O/U 215.5 | 81% |
| Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| O/U 217.5 | 78% |
| Spread -4.5 | 74% |
| O/U 219.5 | 74% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| O/U 221.5 | 71% |
| O/U 223.5 | 68% |
| Spread -6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 225.5 | 65% |
| Spread -7.5 | 64% |
| Spread -8.5 | 62% |
| O/U 226.5 | 62% |
| O/U 227.5 | 61% |
| Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| O/U 229.5 | 55% |
| Spread -11.5 | 51% |
| O/U 231.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| O/U 232.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 47% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| O/U 233.5 | 46% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| O/U 234.5 | 45% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Spread -13.5 | 44% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Assists O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 235.5 | 42% |
| O/U 236.5 | 41% |
| Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -15.5 | 39% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 39% |
| O/U 237.5 | 38% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 34.5 | 38% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 38% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 29.5 | 37% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 35% |
| O/U 239.5 | 34% |
| O/U 240.5 | 33% |
| Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 39.5 | 33% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 44.5 | 33% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 32% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Spread -18.5 | 31% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| O/U 242.5 | 30% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 | 27% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Egor Demin: Assists O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| O/U 245.5 | 24% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Spread -21.5 | 23% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 29.5 | 21% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| O/U 248.5 | 20% |
| Spread -22.5 | 20% |
| Nets vs. Cavaliers | 18% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Spread -24.5 | 16% |
| Spread -1.5 | 16% |
| O/U 251.5 | 15% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -26.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Spread -28.5 | 10% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -30.5 | 7% |
| Spread -32.5 | 7% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| Spread -34.5 | 5% |
| Spread -38.5 | 4% |
| Spread -11.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -36.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Nets vs. Cavaliers. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 18% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-24T23:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $83K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: Nets vs. Cavaliers plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
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