Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 84% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 83% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 78% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 78% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 74% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 72% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 67% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 65% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 63% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 61% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 55% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 51% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 48% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 46% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 46% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 44% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 43% |
| O/U 240.5 | 42% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 39% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 38% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 36% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 35% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 35% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 33% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| O/U 246.5 | 29% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 29% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 26% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Spread -18.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 12% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 6% |
Markt-Kontext
Grizzlies vs. Warriors. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 39% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-24T02:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $531K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: Grizzlies vs. Warriors über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Politik Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
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