Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 213.5 | 96% |
| O/U 215.5 | 95% |
| O/U 217.5 | 94% |
| O/U 219.5 | 93% |
| O/U 221.5 | 91% |
| O/U 223.5 | 88% |
| O/U 225.5 | 85% |
| Bulls O/U 110.5 | 85% |
| O/U 227.5 | 83% |
| Wizards O/U 110.5 | 83% |
| O/U 229.5 | 80% |
| Bulls O/U 112.5 | 79% |
| O/U 230.5 | 78% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| Wizards O/U 112.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 77% |
| O/U 231.5 | 76% |
| Bulls O/U 114.5 | 75% |
| O/U 233.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 72% |
| Wizards O/U 114.5 | 72% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 9.5 | 70% |
| O/U 235.5 | 69% |
| Bulls O/U 116.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 67% |
| Wizards O/U 116.5 | 67% |
| O/U 236.5 | 66% |
| O/U 237.5 | 66% |
| O/U 238.5 | 64% |
| Bulls O/U 118.5 | 64% |
| O/U 239.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 61% |
| Wizards O/U 118.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 60% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 57% |
| O/U 241.5 | 56% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 56% |
| Bulls O/U 120.5 | 56% |
| O/U 242.5 | 54% |
| Wizards O/U 120.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 53% |
| O/U 243.5 | 52% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Kyshawn George: Steals O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Kyshawn George: Steals O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Kyshawn George: Steals O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 244.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 49% |
| Wizards vs. Bulls | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Wizards O/U 122.5 | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 24.5 | 46% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| O/U 246.5 | 44% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 34.5 | 44% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 42% |
| Bulls O/U 124.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 15.5 | 41% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 40% |
| Wizards O/U 124.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 249.5 | 39% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 34.5 | 39% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 34.5 | 39% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 39.5 | 39% |
| Bulls O/U 126.5 | 39% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 39.5 | 37% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 37% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 17.5 | 37% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 37% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 22.5 | 36% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 34.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 64.5 | 34% |
| O/U 252.5 | 33% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 12.5 | 33% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 33% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Bulls O/U 128.5 | 33% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 24.5 | 30% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 29.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 255.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 66.5 | 27% |
| Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 24.5 | 24% |
| Wizards O/U 130.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Bulls O/U 132.5 | 22% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 21% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Spread -11.5 | 19% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 19% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Bulls O/U 130.5 | 19% |
| Wizards O/U 132.5 | 19% |
| Spread -12.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 137.5 | 17% |
| Bulls O/U 134.5 | 17% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 139.5 | 16% |
| Wizards O/U 134.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 141.5 | 13% |
| Spread -15.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 15.5 | 11% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -22.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -23.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -24.5 | 4% |
| Spread -26.5 | 4% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -27.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Wizards vs. Bulls. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 48% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $240K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: Wizards vs. Bulls über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Politik Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Was ist die liquideste politische Plattform?
- Polymarket — mit Abstand. Das US-Präsidentschafts-Volumen 2024 lag bei ~$3,5 Mrd vs Kalshi (~$200 M) und Betfair (~$120 M). Da Polymarket in vielen Jurisdiktionen geo-blockiert ist, nutzen Trader Broker wie Politik Wetten um auf dasselbe Orderbuch zuzugreifen — ohne zusätzliche Gebühren.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Wizards vs. Bulls" auf Politik Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →