Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 223.5 | 74% |
| 1H Moneyline | 71% |
| O/U 226.5 | 69% |
| Race to 10 | 69% |
| Race to 30 | 69% |
| Race to 20 | 66% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 14.5 | 66% |
| O/U 229.5 | 62% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 3.5 | 61% |
| O/U 232.5 | 56% |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | 54% |
| O/U 234.5 | 51% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| O/U 235.5 | 48% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| O/U 236.5 | 46% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| O/U 237.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5 | 44% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| O/U 239.5 | 42% |
| O/U 238.5 | 42% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 24.5 | 40% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| O/U 240.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 24.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| O/U 242.5 | 36% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| O/U 245.5 | 31% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5 | 31% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5 | 31% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 29.5 | 31% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 34.5 | 27% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| O/U 248.5 | 26% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 34.5 | 26% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 26% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 15.5 | 24% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| O/U 251.5 | 21% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -12.5 | 20% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Spread -12.5 | 15% |
| Spread -15.5 | 14% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 29.5 | 13% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 44.5 | 12% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 74% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Magic. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the game i…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $103K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Magic über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Politik Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Was ist die liquideste politische Plattform?
- Polymarket — mit Abstand. Das US-Präsidentschafts-Volumen 2024 lag bei ~$3,5 Mrd vs Kalshi (~$200 M) und Betfair (~$120 M). Da Polymarket in vielen Jurisdiktionen geo-blockiert ist, nutzen Trader Broker wie Politik Wetten um auf dasselbe Orderbuch zuzugreifen — ohne zusätzliche Gebühren.
- Sind politische Vorhersagemärkte in DE legal?
- Sie befinden sich in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert; einige Broker-Frontends haben einen anderen Geo-Footprint. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können — und nur, wenn Sie die rechtliche Lage in Ihrer Jurisdiktion verstehen.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
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