Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Spread -13.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 92% |
| O/U 36.5 | 92% |
| Spread -16.5 | 91% |
| Spread -19.5 | 89% |
| O/U 38.5 | 89% |
| O/U 40.5 | 87% |
| Spread -17.5 | 86% |
| O/U 42.5 | 86% |
| Spread -20.5 | 83% |
| O/U 44.5 | 79% |
| Spread -23.5 | 78% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 78% |
| O/U 46.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| Sam Houston O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| Spread -25.5 | 72% |
| Spread -26.5 | 71% |
| O/U 48.5 | 71% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 70% |
| Spread -27.5 | 68% |
| O/U 50.5 | 67% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Spread -28.5 | 64% |
| Spread -29.5 | 62% |
| Texas Tech O/U 41.5 | 62% |
| Spread -30.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 52.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 58% |
| Spread -31.5 | 56% |
| O/U 54.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| Sam Houston O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| Spread -32.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 54% |
| Spread -33.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Texas Tech O/U 44.5 | 52% |
| Spread -34.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech: Total Touchdowns O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 46% |
| Spread -35.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 44% |
| Spread -36.5 | 43% |
| O/U 58.5 | 43% |
| Spread -37.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| Spread -38.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| Spread -39.5 | 37% |
| O/U 60.5 | 37% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -40.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 35% |
| O/U 62.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 34% |
| Spread -41.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Spread -42.5 | 28% |
| Spread -44.5 | 28% |
| O/U 64.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| 2Q O/U 23.5 | 24% |
| O/U 66.5 | 22% |
| O/U 68.5 | 22% |
| Spread -47.5 | 21% |
| Spread -48.5 | 19% |
| O/U 70.5 | 16% |
| Spread -51.5 | 14% |
| O/U 72.5 | 14% |
| O/U 74.5 | 13% |
| Spread -50.5 | 12% |
| Spread -54.5 | 9% |
| Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 92%. In the upcoming college football game between Sam Houston and Texas Tech, scheduled for September 26 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Sam Houston" if Sam Houston win the game. This market w…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $82K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Politische Märkte werden meist nach offizieller Kandidaten- oder Behörden-Bestätigung aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, Two-Hour-Window öffnet, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC.
Kalshi settelt USD via CFTC-Clearinghouse, mit klar definierten Resolution Sources (z.B. AP Race Calls für Wahlen). Betfair settelt nach offiziellem Ergebnis-Eintrag der Liga/Behörde. Manifold ist Spielgeld.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
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