Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Politik Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 87% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 76% |
| O/U 42.5 | 74% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| O/U 44.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 64% |
| O/U 46.5 | 63% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 58% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 54% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| O/U 50.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Safety? | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 52.5 | 45% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 42% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Patriots vs. Bears | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| O/U 56.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Moneyline | 31% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| O/U 58.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 60.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 24% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| O/U 62.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| O/U 64.5 | 18% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Patriots vs. Bears. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 40% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-23T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $128K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: Patriots vs. Bears über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Politik Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Was ist die liquideste politische Plattform?
- Polymarket — mit Abstand. Das US-Präsidentschafts-Volumen 2024 lag bei ~$3,5 Mrd vs Kalshi (~$200 M) und Betfair (~$120 M). Da Polymarket in vielen Jurisdiktionen geo-blockiert ist, nutzen Trader Broker wie Politik Wetten um auf dasselbe Orderbuch zuzugreifen — ohne zusätzliche Gebühren.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
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